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Practical Reliability Analysis By Ken Neubeck
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From the Back Cover
Authored by a practicing reliability engineer with over 25 years of experience, this book provides useful insights and a practical analysis that can be used to deal with reliability problems in designs. Practical Reliability Analysis makes use of both case studies and illustrative examples to teach readers through the use of practical applications.
Features include:About the Author
Ken Neubeck has accrued over two decades of reliability engineering experience in the aerospace and commercial fields. After obtaining his B.S. and M.S. degrees in applied math from SUNY at Stony Brook, he started employment with the Fairchild Republic Company and worked on the A-10 Close Air Support Aircraft program as a reliability engineer for over twelve years. After the company closed in 1987, he continued as a reliability engineer for electronics companies and other commercial businesses. Ken has written books on the A-10 and F-105 aircraft as well as on amateur radio topics where he holds the call sign WB2AMU. He continues to conduct extensive research in the area of radio propagation.
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved. WHY THIS BOOK?
Actually, the question stated above is best answered by another question: Why isn't the subject of reliability taught more often as a regular subject in more universities? Reliability is perhaps one of the better fields for engineering and applied math students to apply their academic background in practical ways.
But as a number of writers have pointed out in some of the industry reliability newsletters over the years, many newly graduated engineers from U.S. universities seem to have had little exposure to the measure of reliability nor are they equipped to design components with reliability in mind. One of the reasons for this has been brought out by Professor Marvin Roush in his article "Reliability: Where Are the Universities?" (RAC Newsletter, September 1988). He states, "It is my premise that there are few university engineering faculty who would be comfortable teaching reliability considerations within their particular special discipline. With their limited knowledge about reliability, they would find it difficult to select homework problems and design problems which incorporate reliability, let alone grade the solutions."
Reliability is occasionally offered as a basic course in either the applied mathematics or engineering curriculum in a number of U.S. universities. Sometimes it is listed as an elective, but it is rarely offered on a regular basis when listed in this manner in the college catalog. It appears that the ideal way to bridge this problem is to bring engineers from the reliability field to teach and develop textbooks that suitably discuss this subject. With this basic goal in mind, I undertook this book project—a reliability textbook that is suitable for teaching at the university level, as well as being a useful guide to engineers who confront reliability problems in their field of work. Hence, this is my answer to "Why this book?"
Reliability engineering received a major boost as a distinct field in engineering when the U.S. space program took off during the 1960s. The government needed a program to ensure high reliability for components that are used in the space environment and this resulted in the birth of the reliability engineering field. Military programs followed suit shortly thereafter, and many reliability tasks were required to be performed and submitted formally as a data item to the customer on new aircraft programs. It is incredible to think that on some programs, such as the Grumman LEM program, there were over 100 engineers dedicated to performing many reliability-type tasks!
In recent years, the number of military programs has declined significantly and reliability requirements have been relaxed, yet reliability remains a very important aspect of engineering. It still must be addressed in various ways for both military and commercial products. Poor reliability can still undermine a new product as well as adversely impact a company's reputation.
In 1961, the classic book Reliability Theory and Practice (Prentice Hall) by Igor Bazovsky was published. This book provided the mathematical background for the basic aspect of reliability theory and has been used as an important reference by many reliability engineers during their careers. Since this classic book came out, a number of similar books have dealt with the numerical aspect of reliability theory.
Unfortunately, several of the newer reliability books tend to get caught up with the bookkeeping tasks of describing methods to generate failure rate prediction values rather than exploring the thinking behind it. At the time of this writing, PRISM is one of the current prediction methods used for calculating individual component failure rate. The danger of tailoring a reliability book around a current prediction method is that methods are revised constantly and the book can be quickly outdated. Thus, the book in your hands will not spend an inordinate amount of time on specific methods for developing failure-rate predictions. Instead, the focus is on promoting practical methods of thinking in solving reliability problems.
As any engineer involved with developing new designs can testify, the exercise of number-crunching does not guarantee high reliability performance. There is a practical side, and this has rarely been addressed fully in any reliability text that has been written previously. No current book serves as a practical guide for all types of engineers to resolve the various reliability issues that may come up. As a mathematician, I have an inherent love for numbers and analysis, but through years of experiences, I have found that many of the calculated reliability values had little bearing on how well a product will really perform during field service. A practical side needs to be addressed that provides a grounded reality for the analysis that needs to be performed.
I was able to live the reliability engineering experience firsthand. After graduating with B.S. and M.S. degrees in applied math, I did not immediately see many opportunities for direct applications in the workplace for the math skills that I had learned. After my first five years as a quality analyst for the Fairchild Republic Company, a former aircraft manufacturing company, I finally got a break with an opportunity to transfer into the company's engineering department as a reliability engineer. In this area, I finally saw a chance to use much of my math background, and I understood that reliability engineering was an ideal field for students in math and engineering to explore.
I was very fortunate to have two excellent senior reliability engineers in the department at that time who had a wealth of experience and education in the field. Dave Conroe and Sam Sobel had the expertise to handle any theoretical or practical problem that came to the department. Sam used to write up numerous reliability and math exercises for me to do on a weekly basis, while Dave would refer me to various sources for additional learning. I learned more about applied math during my time in this department than from all of the college math courses that I had taken. The book includes true-life examples of reliability problems that, in most cases, were based on experiences during my professional work career. It uses the "lessons learned" approach, and readers can take the concepts presented and use them when dealing with reliability-related issues that they encounter.
This book is not just for reliability engineers; it is also for project, electrical, and mechanical engineers, as well as engineering managers to use as a guide when developing a design or in troubleshooting an existing design. It provides hardcore methods towards solving problems by providing a useful set of tools, both in analytical and narrative form for helping any engineer when dealing with reliability issues involving product design. These issues may involve developing corrective action for problems that arise from a unit undergoing testing or field service, as well as working up an analysis to prove a hypothesis. Reliability engineering may very well have had its roots in the aerospace field, but it is applicable for all products that require engineering to make them.
This book provides the necessary caution when using mathematical analysis for a reliability problem. The old saying "figures don't lie, but liars figure" is especially true in the politics of many aerospace and electronic companies. This is particularly true in the area of reliability predictions and publishing MTBF values.
There is a dichotomy of sorts when discussing reliability engineering. There are both qualitative and quantitative aspects to this field. It is my experience that applied math analysis and many reliability concepts go hand and hand. For this book, it is helpful to have some background in applied mathematics, preferably in the area of probability and statistics. The main thing is not to have a fear of numbers or a fear of troubleshooting equipment. The numerical examples in this book assume minimal prior knowledge in the field of statistics.
It is my belief that it is impossible to teach reliability without teaching a reasonable amount of mathematical theory. Teaching reliability without the mathematical fundamentals is like playing music without the basic rhythm that guides it structure. Reliability has no meaning without the math theory behind it to provide the beat.
On the other side, it is important to be able to present mathematical concepts that are fundamental to reliability, some of them complex, in a way that is both interesting and helpful to the reader's understanding. Some previous approaches in teaching reliability and related subjects may have placed perhaps too much emphasis on the math and the approach comes off very dry. In this case, it is like playing music without the emotion because it is weighed down with too much technique.
Thus, a balance is needed between presenting both quantitative math concepts and the qualitative analysis that is presented in case studies. Chapters 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, and 13 are the reliability math-based chapters which would be used in a traditional reliability mathematics course. The remaining chapters involve qualitative examples of reliability engineering from which selected topics could be presented to the student at the discretion of the teacher. However, these chapters would be of particular interest to engineers and program managers in industry. Specifically, Chapters 5 through 9 focus on reliability issues involving the basic design in terms of mechanical, temperature, and humidity factors—these are primarily the types of issues that would be addressed in a physics of failure approach that is a major trend in the reliability field.
There have been very few books on reliability written in the past that have discussed the qualitative portion of the design to the level that it is covered in this book. With the concept that reliability covers many things, each chapter in this book exists a...
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